Fox_Room_Forecasters's Blog

WEDNESDAY EVE. QUICK UPDATE. WE HAVE UPLOADED 2 PICS FROM THE NWS. AS YOU CAN SEE WE ARE IN THE "SLIGHT RISK" ZONE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN IN SPOTS. STAY TUNED, AS THE FRF ARE MONITORING THIS SITUATION!

Excellent post, FRF. It will be interesting to see how this pans out through the day tomorrow.

Here is a link to another SPC map showing that most of central NC is bullseyed for severe weather tomorrow.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1
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as well as the current SPC discussion:

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

THE 12Z WEDNESDAY RAOB DATA SHOWED ONLY A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS COASTAL FL AND SC. AS A
RESULT DEWPOINTS HAVE RECENTLY MIXED DOWN IN THE 50S IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO
MODIFY...AND PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT LOW
60S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF VA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
FROM 800-1200 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE
OF ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40
KT AND INCREASINGLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL LEWP
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND.

*******THIS IN FROM THE STORM PREDICTIONS CNETER FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. I WILL POST PART OF THIER DISCUSSION******

...WV/VA/CAROLINAS/ERN GA...
FARTHER EAST...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN GA/MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS/CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THINNING CLOUDS TO THE WEST...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL VA INTO WESTERN NC/SC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IMPINGE ON INSTABILITY
AXIS. NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONG STORMS COULD CURL NORTHWESTWARD INTO
PARTS OF WV...AND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN GA. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS REGION.

TO SUM ALL THAT TECHNICAL STUFF UP... RUNN!!!!!!!!!! JUST KIDDING! what its saying is the lack of cloud cover is causing more heat in the atmosphere, this leads to a better enviroment for storms to develop... also there is a strong southerly wind, you can prob. go outside and feel it. This is going to feed moistures into the storms. combine, heat, moisture, and lift.. wala.. you got the potential for severe storms! on a side not, there is also wind shear, this is winds that come from diffrent directions, that cause rotation. This can produce tornadoes.... hope that explained some of that..... if you have any questions.. please feel free to ask!

WE HAVE UPLOADED 3 MORE PICS FOR YOU TO LOOK AT! THESE ARE PROBABILITY GRAPHICS, FOR HAIL, TORNADOS, AND WIND. AS YOU CAN SEE THERE IS:

5% CHANCE TORNADO COULD OCCUR 25 MILES WITHIN YOUR LOCATION... THATS VERY SLIGHT
30% CHANCE OF HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DAIAMATER WITHING 25 MILES OF YOUR LOCATION
30% CHANCE OF HAVING WIND DAMMAGE WITHIN 25 MILES OF YOUR LOCATOION
TRYING TO MAKE THIS AS EASY AS POSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND.. ONCE AGAIN.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS.. FEEL FREE TO ASK... WE HERE AT FRF WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT

Great post FRF...thanks for the update. I've got a question for ya'll and I saw you mention something about it above, but I want a little more info about it. I don't have a weather radio. And I won't be able to get one before tonight. So what are my other options? Thanks Again for the update and thank you ahead of time for answering my question.

QUICK UPDATE!!!!!!!!!!
*********TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR OUR AREA UNTIL 1AM!!!! MANY STORMS ARE BEGINING TO FIRE JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS!!! THEY WHOLE LINE WILL BE SLOWYLY HEADING OUR WAY!!

whats the risk for severe storms in Thomasville tonight we have been hit with a little lighting and a few drops of rain??