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by Emily_Byrd from WGHP Weather

Last Post 21 hours Ago


Severe weather tonight, 3/7/08
Mar 7, 2008 | 10:38 AM
Category: Weather
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The forecast for today still looks good for cool and rainy weather through sunset. 

Looking at the latest discussions, outlooks and model data though, I have to consider a good chance of thunderstorms that could be strong to severe overnight tonight and into the early morning hours on Saturday.

The Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of North Carolina under a Slight Risk for severe weather, with our extreme southern and eastern counties (Chatham, Randolph, Montgomery) coming close to the highlighted area.  This Slight Risk area may be pulled westward later today.

Here is the tricky part of the forecast... 
  • The Triad will be in a cool, stable wedge of air today.  (We sometimes refer to this as the Appalachian Wedge.) 
  • A low will be moving northward from the Gulf coast.  It will come through North Carolina later this evening and overnight. 
  • Where will that low end up traveling?  If it comes through the eastern Piedmont,  the cool air stays put and no thunderstorms for us.  If it moves through the mountains or foothills, the cool air gets mixed out by warmer air overnight, and it could provide a more unstable environment for thunderstorms to develop.
The latest models indicate that the low will be lifting northward, up the Appalachian mountains.  With that in mind, we're going to have to prepare for the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms later tonight.  The primary threat will be once again for wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

As before, please feel free to post your observations and storm reports in the comments section of this blog.  Don't forget to put the time of your observation and location.

Many thanks in advance for your documentation!

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Member Comments Total Comments: 3
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Emily_Byrd read my blog view my photos
Mar 7, 2008 | 12:40 PM

The SPC has shifted their Slight Risk outlook further to the EAST, well out of the FOX 8 viewing area.

With this update, I'm more confident that our chances for SEVERE thunderstorms will be stifled due to the cooler air that resides over the Piedmont.

There is certainly a chance of non-severe thunderstorms as the low tracks northward, simply because of the lift associated with a center of low pressure, and the inevitable erosion of cold air. This will occur when southwest winds kick in during the overnight period.

As the low deepens, it will become very windy over North Carolina, mainly during the day on Saturday. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 20-25 mph with higher gusts.

Bottom line:
* Rain continues today and tonight;
* Thunderstorms are possible overnight, especially in our southeastern counties;
* Severe weather (if it occurs) will be over eastern North Carolina, along and east of the I-95 corridor;
* Very windy weather ahead for Saturday.

Van will have another model run to review and can pass along any new information on the FOX 8 5:00 and 6:00 News.

Take care and have a good weekend.
caddyboy read my blog view my photos
Mar 7, 2008 | 1:01 PM

Miss Emily,
I am going to run in the Shammrock Run in Mocksville tomorrow. What is it going to look like at 8 am? By the way you running on Cindy's team in the Koman this year?
Caddy
Casey_32 read my blog view my photos
Mar 8, 2008 | 7:04 PM

I live just east of Hays,Wilkes County and I saw some snow flurries this afternoon. 3/8/08
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Emily_Byrd

I love the weather. I love animals. I think that "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" "Bones" and "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip" ROCK. As music goes: Yo-Yo Ma, Daughtry, Allyson Krauss (and Union Station), Black Eyed Peas, most any John Williams soundtrack (especially Memoirs of a Geisha and Harry Potter), Wagner, Handel, Stevie Nicks, Bonnie Raitt, and I could go on and on.

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