MyFox
 

B_Rock's Blog

by Burlington_Rocker from Burlington, NC

Last Post 119 days, 22 hours Ago


Saturday Snow event
Jan 17, 2008 | 4:26 PM
Category: Weather
Report This Post

....(I've always liked hearing these things called "events". It's like, "A snow event in North Carolina? Where do I get tickets for that!?")

 

After today's wimp of a "storm" came through, (hey, at least there was enough rain to wash all of the 4 layers of salt & brine the road crews put on the roads... talk about overkill!) I have been watching the short-range models, and Saturday (Jan 19th) is looking more and more interesting!

As it looks now, there would be plenty of cold air in place for all precip to be snow. No mixed bag BLEEP like today.  The big question is going to be the track of the low pressure that as of now, hasn't even developed, but the initial model run has it coming up the SE coast and being able to throw copius amounts of moisture into a cold atmosphere.  Here's the text from NWS that eludes to it.

MEANWHILE ... A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY ... MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY.  THE STORM WILL BE INJECTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN INLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING.  BY SATURDAY MORNING A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.  AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WINDUP ... MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN AND SNOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ALSO BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

See those words in that last sentence, "moderate to heavy snow"? Now THAT'S what gets me excited. I will of course be watching!

7 Comments |  Add a Comment

Member Comments Total Comments: 7
Page 1 of 1
Burlington_Rocker read my blog view my photos
Jan 17, 2008 | 9:58 PM

10:00 pm update from NWS

THE MILLER A LOW RACING UP THE COAST ON A MORE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY. THIS LOOKS QUITE PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE NOSING INTO PLACE AS THE UPPER TROF ROTATES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE HAVE VERY LITTLE ICING ASSOCIATED WITH MILLER A LOWS...AS WE HAVE A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE...OR RAIN-SNOW LINE.
THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST WILL BE THE MAJOR PROBLEM. IF THE COLD AIR FLOWS IN BEFORE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT...THIS EARLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW COULD PRODUCE ADVISORY OR PERHAPS EVEN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. PINNING THE FINE DETAILS DOWN AT THIS TIME WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FLIP-FLOPPING FORECAST...THUS WILL OPT FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING...WITH THE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER
40S IN THE SOUTHEAST...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

PRECIP WILL CUT OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS THE STRONG DRY...COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN AFTER 00Z. WILL END PRECIP BY 03Z IN
THE EAST WITH RAPID CLEARING.

To me, this looks more like it would be a quick-hitter, so maybe it won't be around long enough for a nice deep snow like I was hoping earlier today. I'll monitor more tomorrow. either way, after this happens, we will be in for some of the coldest air in a few years, with low temps in the lower teens for Saturday night and Sunday night.
Van_Denton read my blog view my photos
Jan 18, 2008 | 12:38 AM

Burlington Rocker....It is easy to call it overkill after the fact. They can't take chances. The science is not exact enough to be certain so officials have to play it safe. Better to be prepared.

The NWS and FOX called for the possibility of a dusting to 1" of snow in Burlington with 1/10 to 1/4" of freezing rain. The official report was that 0.3 inches of snow fell in Burlington and around 1/10" of freezing rain. The forecast was as close as it can get. However, there are times that the forecast isn't so close and if this had been one of those times and 2 inches of snow and 1/4" of ice had fallen....we would have been happy they were so prepared. It is a chance they can't take. I think we should all applaud the crews that work hard to keep our roads safe.
Van_Denton read my blog view my photos
Jan 18, 2008 | 12:40 AM

Above I am referring to this comment....

(hey, at least there was enough rain to wash all of the 4 layers of salt & brine the road crews put on the roads... talk about overkill!) I
Burlington_Rocker read my blog view my photos
Jan 18, 2008 | 8:57 AM

I knew I should have elaborated more on that point. Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with spreading salt on the major roads and intersections ahead of time, especially the brine solution. That's been the best solution they have come up with in the last 5-7 years. The point I was trying to make is that they POURED way too much salt onto the intersections near my house. Anyone that's ever driven on hwy 12 on the outer banks during a windy day and the sand has come off of the dunes and onto the road making it slick, this was kind of the same. If they do it again in prep for Saturday’s "event", I'll snap a picture of it. There was so much at the intersection before the precip started, that it was actually pulling moisture out of the ground up to the surface.
Burlington_Rocker read my blog view my photos
Jan 18, 2008 | 9:40 AM

Friday am update:

AS OF 310 AM THIS MORNING...SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD HAVE RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM... THEN SPREAD NORTH BY SUNRISE. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 12-15Z...
THUS SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...
A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
SATURDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES FROM THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SPEED OF THE LOW EXITING THE AREA BEFORE THE COLD AIR SETS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
NO MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE SANDHILLS OR THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.
Burlington_Rocker read my blog view my photos
Jan 18, 2008 | 9:57 PM

Friday PM update: looks like Burlington and points east are right on the firing line for a decent accumulation. Here in Burlington, looks like I am right on the edge. (ps noticed absolutely NO salt, brine or any other evidence of equipment being on the roads in Alamance or Guilford counties today & tonight. Did they use up all their supply in one shot or is it just not necessary in a snow only event?)

INITIALLY...
THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME RAIN...IN THE FAR NORTHWEST (TRIAD AREA)... AND RAIN ELSEWHERE.

WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ...THEN FINALLY TO ALL SNOW...EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT. ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND EASTWARD...CHANGEOVER WILL BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AT THIS TIME...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT SNOW...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO
DISTANCE FROM THE STORM. SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE TRIANGLE AREA...WHERE THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...ROCKY MOUNT...TARBORO...ROANOKE
RAPIDS AREAS...WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ALBEIT LIGHTER TOWARDS MORNING.

NWS RAH WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM ALAMANCE COUNTY AND AREAS EAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
Burlington_Rocker read my blog view my photos
Jan 19, 2008 | 8:30 AM

Saturday AM update:

Here we are just 4-6 hours out from the start of the event, and the NWS is STILL having a lot of difficulty with this one. They even mention that fact in their discussion. It is looking more & more like this system will be a flop for most of us. I won't paste the entire mornings discussion here, just some highlights. What is looking certain is the rush of cold air that is coming in after this system. Highs on Sunday are still expected to get only to around freezing in most places, and overnight lows should dip into the mid to low teens.

BEFORE GETTING INTO WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THEY ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY HARD TIME
DEPICTING THE NEAR TERM WEATHER

PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN PRIMARILY AS SNOW IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. FURTHER EAST...PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO SNOW IN SUCH PLACES AS RALEIGH...DURHAM...OXFORD...AND SANFORD
BY MIDDAY. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW SNOW ACCUMULATION TO EXPECT. WITH THE MORE SUPRESSED TRACK OF THE LOW...MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH PIEDMONT...EVEN IN SOME OF THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THERE WILL BE MORE QPF TO COME BY BUT A LATER TRANSITION TO SNOW.

IN SUMMARY...EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2" IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH MORE IN THE ORDER OF 2" OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THE
WARNING AREA LOOKS TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 2-3" BUT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HIGH
Page 1 of 1


Write your comment below:




Burlington_Rocker

Born and Raised in Alamance County, I've lived in a few other places in the the triad area virtually my entire life, except for a 5-year stint in the US Army that took me to numerous places around the country and around the world. Music is my primary passion. I've seen so many live shows, too many to count. Bands like Ac/Dc, Kiss, Metallica, Dave Matthews, Trans-Siberian Orchestra, Mike-E, Guns N Roses, Cinderella, Ted Nugent, the list goes on and on. I like everything from old 80's hair band stuff to new age Christian rock to jazz to classic country. I play drums at our church almost every Sunday, and am touring locally with a new artist that just released their first CD. I am also a member of Triad Skywarn, the CoCoRaHS network, and a proud member of the Fox 8 Weather Watchers. If you want to learn more about any of those groups, feel free to ask me about them.

Member Since: 9/27/2006


 

View All Photos


RSS: XMLWhat is RSS?