Alan_H's Blog

I've been simmering over the governor's candidates for some time, letting it marinate, or 'get happy' in Emeril Lagasse terms.  The real choice is not on May 6, but in November.  That's when we'll see true differences between the party nominees.

Everyone says they loathe negative campaign ads, but they work.  Just ask Secretary of State Richard Moore.  He has closed the race between himself and Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue down to single digits.  Perdue, hoping to generate good will among voters (and stop her sliding poll numbers) publically denounced negative ads, vowing only to run positive ads during the last weeks of the primary.

Last week's face-to-face debate between the two candidates was far more cordial than contentious, taking the "let's all get along" mantra to new levels.  Both Perdue and Moore said they would whole-heartedly support the democrat party's nominee for governor, and they seemed to mean it, but you just felt neither thought for a minute they would lose.  
 
Each of the four main republican candidates can't seem to agree enough on every issue.  Illegal immigration seems to be the only area where there is a slight difference of opinion, with the emphasis on slight.  Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has raised the most money, based on the latest campaign finance reports.  State Senator Fred Smith, Salisbury attorney Bill Graham and former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr have respectably raised and spent the least.  McCrory is the only candidate who has not loaned money to his campaign.  Part of that can be attributed to not entering the race until a few months ago,

The real race won't begin until after the republican runoff.  Then we'll see how desperately democrats want to keep the governor's mansion and how republicans want to begin a new era.
 

What's all the hurry about getting democratic superdelegates to make up their minds?

Howard Dean, Democratic National Committee Chairman said Monday that either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama must drop out of the race after the last primary June 3.  He also said that while the rules specify superdelegates can wait until the convention begins (Aug. 25) to choose a candidate, they too, should also decide by June.  All, Dean said, in order to unify the party and defeat John McCain in November.

My first thought is of Will Rogers' famous quote "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat." 

Seriously, what's the hurry?  Democrats rarely decide on their party's presidential nominee before June.  In 2004, John Kerry was the presumptive nominee by March, and that didn't exactly help them win in November.

In 1976, President Gerald Ford won the GOP nomination over Ronald Reagan by about 100 delegates.  Ford trailed Carter by double digits after the GOP convention, yet came within 47 electoral votes (Ford won 27 states, compared to Carter's 23 plus DC.) of winning. 

Granted, the Ford administration suffered from post traumatic Watergate disorder, but most historians believe (as did Ford) the election was lost because Reagan, although while endorsing Ford, did not actively campaign for the President.  Had Reagan given a moderate effort, history could've been changed.   

There is virtually no chance democrats will not fully get behind this year's nominee.  A wild card in the equation is whether Obama supporters, a large number of them first time voters, will be as enthusiastic if he's on the top of the ticket.

Besides, doesn't anyone remember the last season of The West Wing?  Texas Congressman Matt Santos won the democratic presidential nomination on the fourth ballot at the convention then defeated California Republican Senator Arnold Vinnick to succeed President Josiah Bartlett.  The feeling that no matter which candidate claimed victory, America was the winner.  Too bad that was fiction.

John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina, ended his presidential run on January 30.  He ended his campaign in New Orleans' Ninth Ward, the same place where he announced his second run for president on December 27, 2006. 

A day or two after dropping out of the race, Edwards and his wife Elizabeth appeared at the closing of his campaign headquarters in Chapel Hill.   Nothing has been posted on his  campaign Web site since Jan. 30.

Remaining democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have met with Edwards, hoping to gain his endorsement and the 18 delegates from South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire.

There was widespread speculation both Obama and Clinton offered Edwards' a cabinet position (attorney general).

Since then, Edwards has rarely (I can't remember any) appeared in public.  I'm certain the exile is self-imposed, but has he waited so long that he's lost some of his clout as a party leader?

Granted, I'm light years from Edwards' inner circle, but we live in a world of perceived reality.  

Is Edwards waiting until closer to the May 6 primary here in North Carolina?  There's just something unusual about quiet politicians, even those who are no longer candidates.

Choosing which candidate for president or governor to vote for in the May 6 primary is easy.  The candidates in these two races are literally spending the most time getting your attention through TV and online ads, e-mails, phone calls and old-fashioned face-to-face campaigning.

These are also a small percentage of choices you will have to make between now and May 6.  In addition to statewide offices, who will earn your vote for State Supreme Court Associate Justice, Court of Appeals or District Court?  Which judicial candidates are republican or democrat? 

OK, that was a trick question.  Judicial candidates are non-partisan, which means they will appear on all ballots, whether you're red, blue or independent.

Give these candidates your serious consideration and don't go blindly into the election booth.  Check out this story on myfoxwghp.com or the Board of Elections in your county.  WARNING:  This will mean doing something than sitting in front of the television or checking your e-mail.  Do more than use your Google search bar.  Take the time to get involved.  In this information age, being under-informed is as bad as being uninformed.

I promised awhile back to focus more on statewide and local races, but it's been awfully tempting to weigh in on the presidential primary. (especially when Hillary Clinton calls Barack Obama 'an elitist').  I'll write about the presidential race later this week.

I was disappointed to hear Kay Hagan's decision April 11 not to debate fellow democratic candidates who hope to challenge incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole this fall.  Challenger Jim Neal wasted little time in attacking Hagan's decision.  As a side not, Neal's campaign responds to any news (and its appropriate spin) in quick fashion.  Last week, WTVD-TV released poll results showing virtually no change in the race in the past 60 days:  Hagan and Neal were in a statistical dead heat (21-20 percent with a 3 percent margin of error).  The news release failed to mention both candidates trailed 'undecided' by 20 points.

High undecideds show neither Hagan, Neal, Duskin Lassiter, Marcus Williams or Howard Staley are making much of an impression on likely voters.  Once we get through the primary, this race will heat up considerably, because national democrats believe Sen. Dole is vulnerable.  The president and governor races will be the hottest, with this race likely running third in impact (the combination of buzz, TV ads and shouting heads).

Up next, the race for governor ... and a few thoughts on the prez primary.

I have spent a lot of time (and words) talking about the presidential horse race in recent months.  White House wanna-bes will be only one of several choices North Carolina voters will have to decide on May 6. 

My promise to you is to spend more time studying up on local and statewide races, plus local bond proposals and issues.  I will share what I learn on my blog.  I would like your input on the issues that interest you most.  You can respond by commenting to this blog or e-mail me at alan.hobbs@foxtv.com.

Thank you in advance for your time and interest.

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Circle your calendars and set the DVR/Tivo/VCR for Friday, April 18. That will be the FOX8 Sports Director Rich Brenner anchors his last show.

I have known Rich since 1992 when I first moved to then WGHPiedmont8. Rich has been at FOX8 for as long as I was a TV news producer. He is more than a co-worker. Rich is a friend and a person whose opinion I highly respect.

This blog was started not to tell my experiences with Rich, but for viewers to share their stories, opinions and well wishes.

It all comes down to Super Tuesday:  Part Deux.  Based on the talking heads and wagging tongues, Obama/Clinton and McCain/Huckabee should be settled once and for all by Wednesday, March 5.

Forget voters in the remaining states, such as North Carolina May 6.  Let's get all this over with now as soon as possible.

What's the hurry? 

Friday, February 29 on Fox News Channel's Hannity & Colmes, a patient Mike Huckabee answered Sean Hannity's every conceivable variation of "Why don't you just quit now?"  Huckabee's answer was simple, when John McCain wins 1,191 delegates, he'll concede the race.  Huckabee gets it.

New Mexico Governor (and former democratic presidential candidate) Bill Richardson said Sunday that whoever leads the delegate count after the Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries should be the party's nominee.

Again, what's the hurry?

If you follow this logic, why did they even bother to play Super Bowl XLII?   New England had not lost a game all season (including beating opponent New York Giants) and was the popular choice among those taking and placing odds on the game (for entertainment purposes only, of course).  Yet they went ahead and played the game anyway, which the underdog Giants won.  For additional sports analogies, see Arkansas vs. LSU (Arkansas 50-48, 3OT).  Sorry, I couldn't resist getting that one in.

The races are over when McCain gets 1,191 and either Obama or Clinton reach 2,025 pledged delegates to their respective party's convention. 

Why is everyone in such a hurry to end the process that is only entering its third month?  There's plenty of time between now and the conventions late this summer.  The race keeps the dialogue going, keeps people talking about the issues and makes politicians answer our questions.  Since when did pols decide they needed to talk less?  Politics is a blood sport.  It's all about wins and losses.  Anyone who doesn't keep score is either a neophyte, wanna-be or a Green party member.

A final note about Super Tuesday:  Part Deux.  For the first time in years, Texas is a player in primary politics.  I can't think about Texas politics without hearing Molly Ivins' voice.  She wrote with the perfect southern drawl.  Molly was the best at dissecting political bluster (the nicest 'b' word I can come up with).

When the candidates, or the talking heads for that fact, get too loud, start looking for a pony.  Molly once wrote about looking far and wide for a pony while amongst a group of politicians.  Finally, one of them asked what she was looking for, she explained "with all this horse... (manure) there's got to be one around here somewhere."  It loses some of its punch in translation, but you get the point.

Former Winston-Salem city council member Vernon Robinson ran for U.S. House of Representatives in the last two elections. He lost by a 2-to-1 margin against democrat incumbent Rep. Brad Miller (13th District) in 2006. Two years earlier, he lost to fellow republican Virginia Foxx in a runoff for the 5th District opening created when Richard Burr ran for (and won) the race for U.S. Senate.

Since his loss to Miller, Mr. Robinson has remained uncharacteristically quiet. His Web site http://www.vernonrobinson.com/ currently touts Ron Paul's presidential candidacy.

Whether you agreed with his politics or not, Robinson took a scorched earth approach to campaigning. His media campaigns were almost always met with a "what is he claiming now?" curiosity, a very effective advertising method. His ads always made for good theatre.

It's hard to believe after Robinson dropped off the political radar after two such high-profile campaigns. Maybe he'll show up this week, now that candidates for political offices have begun filing for races. Let's hope so, if only for entertainment purposes.

Mr. Robinson, we would love to have you join the MyFoxWGHP.com Blog community. I think you could provide interesting insight and original content on what's going to be an interesting year in American politics.

I love the fact Super Tuesday and Mardi Gras fall on the same day this year.
 
While revelers in New Orleans and other parts of the country let the good times roll all day long, candidates and supporters must wait until the polls close to determine how much they can celebrate.

In New Orleans, Fat Tuesday ends promptly at midnight, when police officially close Bourbon Street.  City workers follow close behind, using large trucks and high-pressure water hoses to clean the streets.  Years ago, one sign of Mardi Gras success was measured by how many much garbage (in tons) was collected on Ash Wednesday.  The PC cops killed that tradition off in the mid-90s.

Tuesday, political junkies will gorge themselves on exit polls, delegate counts and primary/caucus analysis.  Beginning Wednesday, many Christians will spend the following 40 days fasting and in prayer before Easter.  During that time, politicos will have to survive on leaner fare (smaller groups of primaries).  There's a red meat analogy there, but I can't find the right words.

Candidates, who have emptied their war chests for Super Tuesday, will fast on spending over the next 40 days, except in the 12 states holding primaries/caucuses.  Efforts to raise the money won't.

The celebration on Easter (March 23) marks the end of Lent.  Will either party have their nominee sewn up in the next 41 days?  Personally, I hope not, because North Carolina's primary is May 6.  We began 2008 thinking the party would be over by the time it got here.  Now, we may get to sit at the table with the grown-ups.  We can only hope by then, candidates will throw us some cash like people will be throwing beads, doubloons and other shiny objects off of Mardi Gras floats Tuesday.  Let the good times roll a little longer.

No one is better at spending other people's money than the federal government. "World class," as Ross Perot would say.

I understand the importance of improving the country's economy. But giving people cash (or checks), hoping they'll go out and spend money sounds like giving drunks keys to ABC stores.

We got into this problem, in part, by spending money we didn't have on things we probably could've done without. Banks and mortgage companies handed out loans to people with no business owning, much less affording a home. So you and I will end up bailing out the bad loans, just like we bailed out the savings and loan industry in the early 80s (ancient history in today's short-term memory society).

The tax rebate idea sounds like the government's going to a pay day loan office so we can spend money now on iPods, HDTVs and dream vacations. Hasn't the government been telling us we need to stay away from pay day loans?  

When will we learn "do as I say, not as I do" is never sound fiscal policy? When I heard the stimulus package announced Thursday, the first words I thought of were "recession dividend." Maybe, as Strother Martin, the warden in Cool Hand Luke would say, I just "need to get my mind right."

I am not so sanctimonious that I will refuse my rebate. The money will go towards bills and hopefully some for savings.  We're interested in hearing what you plan to do with your tax rebate.

Here are the results of the latest MyFoxWGHP.com poll question:

What domestic issue is most important to you when choosing a presidential candidate?

Illegal immigrants       43.23%
Economy                   40.00%
Abortion                             6.71%
Education                    5.34%
Gun control                  2.59%
Free trade                    2.13%

Total number of votes:  655

Thanks for playing!

Congratulations to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire who were interested and motivated enough to actually do something.  We can only hope this is a sign of things to come through the remainder of the primary/caucus process.  These folks are actually interested in the politics, what a concept.    

This ends the retail portion of our political program.  From here on out, it's wholesale.  Expect to see a lot of campaign ads on the cable news channels leading up to the 27-state Super Tuesday on February 5.    

Before then, South Carolina voters will write the next chapter.  We'll soon find out if favorite son Edwards or neighbor Thompson will get their first wins.  Both need a first or second place finish to stay in the race.  Edwards has a stronger chance of winning South Carolina than Thompson, but both face rising tides of momentum fueled by Obama and Huckabee.  Despite wins in New Hampshire by Clinton and McCain Tuesday, Iowa's winners are the key palmetto state players.

We've got a new feature on the MyFoxWGHP.com Politics page I hope you'll check out.  The name Candidate Matchmaker is self-explanatory.

Compare your position on key political issues with those of current presidential candidates.  The matchmaker allows you to play 20 questions to find your closest political match and dig deeper into the candidates' answers, stances and news coverage.

The questions cover individual rights, domestic, economic, defense and international issues.  For each question, you rank your approval, opposition, or choose to have no opinion.

The wording of a few of the phrases is interesting.  Here are two Jason and I discussed after taking the quiz:

Drug use is immoral: enforce laws against it

Whether it is immoral or not, drug use is against the law.  Should we not enforce laws against something you consider moral?  

Allow churches to provide welfare services

Churches already provide these services.  Who would be against churches (or anybody) providing food for needy people?  The phrase's intent seems to be either churches or the government.

Jason and I each took the test and were surprised by the results.  We're not exact opposites on the political spectrum, but neither do we row in the same boat.  We each took it three times, and by modifying our answers, got a different result each time.  Our new web producer, Dara, was also surprised by her results.

Take the quiz http://election.myfoxwghp.com and share your results with us.  

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We have a new feature on our politics page and I want to tell you about Candidate Matchmaker.

You begin by registering your opinion on 20 issues (individual rights, domestic, economic, defense and international issues). When you finish, the matchmaker ranks the candidates most in line with your beliefs.

I wish a few of the questions were worded differently. For example, on domestic issues, one of the questions is:

Drug use is immoral: enforce laws against it
Drug use is against the law. If you don't agree, work to change the laws. The fact it is immoral (according to this question) is a judgement.

That's one of the questions Jason and I talked about when we took the test. By the way, both of us were surprised with the matchmaker results. We've each taken the quiz three times. It is definitely a talker.

Have fun with the matchmaker and blog about your experiences.

You'll find Candidate Matchmaker by going to http://election.myfoxwghp.com. It's on the top of the page.  Or, you can click here.

Heaux, heaux, heaux!

Alan_H